Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the polls under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".